Recent readings show Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 1.6% YoY in June 2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though Tokyo core CPI edged up to 1.9% in July. The closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets reflect uncertainty over whether energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments and a weak yen will push the annual 2026 average above 2%, consistent with the BOJ's July 2026 outlook projecting core inflation at 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2026 before moderating. Traders weigh persistent wage gains and goods cost pass-through against potential oil price stabilization and subdued demand. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the BOJ's next policy assessment, which could clarify the trajectory of underlying inflation measures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≤1,9 % 48.9%
2.0-2.4% 48%
3.0-3.4% 3.5%
2,5-2,9 % 1.4%
$37,673 Vol.
$37,673 Vol.
22. Jan. 2027
≤1,9 %
49%
2.0-2.4%
48%
2,5-2,9 %
1%
3.0-3.4%
3%
3,5-3,9 %
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1,9 % 48.9%
2.0-2.4% 48%
3.0-3.4% 3.5%
2,5-2,9 % 1.4%
$37,673 Vol.
$37,673 Vol.
22. Jan. 2027
≤1,9 %
$18,030 Vol.
49%
2.0-2.4%
$10,644 Vol.
48%
2,5-2,9 %
$5,175 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,471 Vol.
3%
3,5-3,9 %
$985 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings show Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 1.6% YoY in June 2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though Tokyo core CPI edged up to 1.9% in July. The closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets reflect uncertainty over whether energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments and a weak yen will push the annual 2026 average above 2%, consistent with the BOJ's July 2026 outlook projecting core inflation at 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2026 before moderating. Traders weigh persistent wage gains and goods cost pass-through against potential oil price stabilization and subdued demand. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the BOJ's next policy assessment, which could clarify the trajectory of underlying inflation measures.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$37,673Enddatum
22. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings show Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 1.6% YoY in June 2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though Tokyo core CPI edged up to 1.9% in July. The closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets reflect uncertainty over whether energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments and a weak yen will push the annual 2026 average above 2%, consistent with the BOJ's July 2026 outlook projecting core inflation at 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2026 before moderating. Traders weigh persistent wage gains and goods cost pass-through against potential oil price stabilization and subdued demand. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the BOJ's next policy assessment, which could clarify the trajectory of underlying inflation measures.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volumen
$37,673Enddatum
22. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings show Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 1.6% YoY in June 2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though Tokyo core CPI edged up to 1.9% in July. The closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets reflect uncertainty over whether energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments and a weak yen will push the annual 2026 average above 2%, consistent with the BOJ's July 2026 outlook projecting core inflation at 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2026 before moderating. Traders weigh persistent wage gains and goods cost pass-through against potential oil price stabilization and subdued demand. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the BOJ's next policy assessment, which could clarify the trajectory of underlying inflation measures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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