Denny Tamaki holds the leading trader consensus at 66.5% as the incumbent seeking a third term in the September 13, 2026, Okinawa gubernatorial election, supported by the All Okinawa coalition that prioritizes opposition to U.S. base relocation at Henoko. Recent February 2026 national election results have shifted the political landscape, leaving the Centrist Reform Alliance undecided on base issues and eroding some of Tamaki’s backing while he emphasizes economic priorities. Challengers such as Genta Koja at 27.5% and Mikio Shimoji at 4.3% trail amid fragmented opposition, with lower-priced candidates reflecting limited momentum in polling and endorsements. The one-month timeline to voting leaves room for further movement tied to coalition alignments and voter focus on local economic versus security concerns.