Recent June core PCE inflation printed at 3.3% year-over-year, down slightly from May’s 3.4%, keeping the Fed’s preferred gauge well above its 2% target and aligning with economist forecasts. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for July 2026 cluster near 3.3%, reflecting persistent services price pressures and limited goods disinflation amid steady consumer spending. With market-implied odds evenly distributed across 3.1–3.5% bins, traders appear focused on month-to-month volatility in shelter and core services components as the key swing factors ahead of the August 26 release. This tight pricing underscores uncertainty over whether the recent modest cooling trend will hold or reaccelerate, consistent with broader 2026 inflation forecasts averaging above 3%.