Recent inflation data and the July 29 FOMC decision are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the December 2026 rate outcome. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June from 4.2% in May, yet remains well above the 2% target, while core inflation held at 2.6%; the central bank kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% but recorded three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike. This hawkish tilt, combined with steady 4.2% unemployment and lingering energy-price risks, has lifted the market-implied probability of no change to 57.5% and a 25 basis point increase to 37.5%. Traders will watch the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting for signals on whether inflation momentum supports further tightening before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
NEU
NEU
9. Dez. 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
Keine Änderung
57%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
2%
Keine Änderung 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
NEU
NEU
9. Dez. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$711 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$758 Vol.
5%
Keine Änderung
$996 Vol.
57%
25 bps increase
$1,431 Vol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$732 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and the July 29 FOMC decision are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the December 2026 rate outcome. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June from 4.2% in May, yet remains well above the 2% target, while core inflation held at 2.6%; the central bank kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% but recorded three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike. This hawkish tilt, combined with steady 4.2% unemployment and lingering energy-price risks, has lifted the market-implied probability of no change to 57.5% and a 25 basis point increase to 37.5%. Traders will watch the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting for signals on whether inflation momentum supports further tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$4,628Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and the July 29 FOMC decision are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the December 2026 rate outcome. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June from 4.2% in May, yet remains well above the 2% target, while core inflation held at 2.6%; the central bank kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% but recorded three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike. This hawkish tilt, combined with steady 4.2% unemployment and lingering energy-price risks, has lifted the market-implied probability of no change to 57.5% and a 25 basis point increase to 37.5%. Traders will watch the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting for signals on whether inflation momentum supports further tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$4,628Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data and the July 29 FOMC decision are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the December 2026 rate outcome. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June from 4.2% in May, yet remains well above the 2% target, while core inflation held at 2.6%; the central bank kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% but recorded three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike. This hawkish tilt, combined with steady 4.2% unemployment and lingering energy-price risks, has lifted the market-implied probability of no change to 57.5% and a 25 basis point increase to 37.5%. Traders will watch the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting for signals on whether inflation momentum supports further tightening before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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