Recent softer inflation and labor market data have tilted near-term trader sentiment slightly against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, leaving the “no hike” outcome at a slim 51.5% implied probability. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls weakened and unemployment held near 4.1%, prompting markets to price a higher probability of a September hold at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. Offsetting this, the June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end amid inflation remaining well above the 2% goal and Middle East-related supply shocks. The next CPI release, August employment report, and September 15-16 FOMC meeting will likely determine whether the modest easing in price pressures persists or gives way to renewed tightening expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
49% Chance
$7,597,119 Vol.
$7,597,119 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
49% Chance
$7,597,119 Vol.
$7,597,119 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent softer inflation and labor market data have tilted near-term trader sentiment slightly against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, leaving the “no hike” outcome at a slim 51.5% implied probability. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls weakened and unemployment held near 4.1%, prompting markets to price a higher probability of a September hold at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. Offsetting this, the June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end amid inflation remaining well above the 2% goal and Middle East-related supply shocks. The next CPI release, August employment report, and September 15-16 FOMC meeting will likely determine whether the modest easing in price pressures persists or gives way to renewed tightening expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,597,119Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent softer inflation and labor market data have tilted near-term trader sentiment slightly against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, leaving the “no hike” outcome at a slim 51.5% implied probability. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls weakened and unemployment held near 4.1%, prompting markets to price a higher probability of a September hold at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. Offsetting this, the June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end amid inflation remaining well above the 2% goal and Middle East-related supply shocks. The next CPI release, August employment report, and September 15-16 FOMC meeting will likely determine whether the modest easing in price pressures persists or gives way to renewed tightening expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,597,119Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent softer inflation and labor market data have tilted near-term trader sentiment slightly against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, leaving the “no hike” outcome at a slim 51.5% implied probability. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls weakened and unemployment held near 4.1%, prompting markets to price a higher probability of a September hold at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. Offsetting this, the June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end amid inflation remaining well above the 2% goal and Middle East-related supply shocks. The next CPI release, August employment report, and September 15-16 FOMC meeting will likely determine whether the modest easing in price pressures persists or gives way to renewed tightening expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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