California has recorded no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquakes through mid-August 2026, with the strongest event a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only scattered smaller tremors since. USGS monitoring and long-term models such as UCERF3 indicate that M7+ events occur infrequently on a yearly basis statewide, consistent with the market-implied 97.5% probability traders assign to “No.” Accumulated tectonic stress along major faults like the San Andreas remains elevated, yet current seismic data show no foreshock sequences or rapid strain changes that typically precede large ruptures. Remaining uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of fault failure; an unexpected mainshock could still occur before year-end if critical stress thresholds are crossed.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
3% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 1, 2027
3% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. California has recorded no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquakes through mid-August 2026, with the strongest event a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only scattered smaller tremors since. USGS monitoring and long-term models such as UCERF3 indicate that M7+ events occur infrequently on a yearly basis statewide, consistent with the market-implied 97.5% probability traders assign to “No.” Accumulated tectonic stress along major faults like the San Andreas remains elevated, yet current seismic data show no foreshock sequences or rapid strain changes that typically precede large ruptures. Remaining uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of fault failure; an unexpected mainshock could still occur before year-end if critical stress thresholds are crossed.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,181শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. California has recorded no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquakes through mid-August 2026, with the strongest event a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only scattered smaller tremors since. USGS monitoring and long-term models such as UCERF3 indicate that M7+ events occur infrequently on a yearly basis statewide, consistent with the market-implied 97.5% probability traders assign to “No.” Accumulated tectonic stress along major faults like the San Andreas remains elevated, yet current seismic data show no foreshock sequences or rapid strain changes that typically precede large ruptures. Remaining uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of fault failure; an unexpected mainshock could still occur before year-end if critical stress thresholds are crossed.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
ভলিউম
$3,181শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California has recorded no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquakes through mid-August 2026, with the strongest event a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only scattered smaller tremors since. USGS monitoring and long-term models such as UCERF3 indicate that M7+ events occur infrequently on a yearly basis statewide, consistent with the market-implied 97.5% probability traders assign to “No.” Accumulated tectonic stress along major faults like the San Andreas remains elevated, yet current seismic data show no foreshock sequences or rapid strain changes that typically precede large ruptures. Remaining uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of fault failure; an unexpected mainshock could still occur before year-end if critical stress thresholds are crossed.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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