No at 76.5% reflects the low historical rate of 5kt-scale bolide events—roughly one every few years on average—combined with NASA’s Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach observations that have ruled out larger threats. As of mid-August 2026, no verified atmospheric explosion meeting the energy threshold has occurred, and newly discovered objects such as 2026 JH2 passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying any 2026 impactors capable of producing 5kt yields, keeping the market-implied probability of a strike modest despite the remaining months in the year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
23% সম্ভাবনা
$312,090 Vol.
$312,090 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
23% সম্ভাবনা
$312,090 Vol.
$312,090 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 76.5% reflects the low historical rate of 5kt-scale bolide events—roughly one every few years on average—combined with NASA’s Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach observations that have ruled out larger threats. As of mid-August 2026, no verified atmospheric explosion meeting the energy threshold has occurred, and newly discovered objects such as 2026 JH2 passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying any 2026 impactors capable of producing 5kt yields, keeping the market-implied probability of a strike modest despite the remaining months in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$312,090শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 76.5% reflects the low historical rate of 5kt-scale bolide events—roughly one every few years on average—combined with NASA’s Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach observations that have ruled out larger threats. As of mid-August 2026, no verified atmospheric explosion meeting the energy threshold has occurred, and newly discovered objects such as 2026 JH2 passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying any 2026 impactors capable of producing 5kt yields, keeping the market-implied probability of a strike modest despite the remaining months in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$312,090শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 76.5% reflects the low historical rate of 5kt-scale bolide events—roughly one every few years on average—combined with NASA’s Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach observations that have ruled out larger threats. As of mid-August 2026, no verified atmospheric explosion meeting the energy threshold has occurred, and newly discovered objects such as 2026 JH2 passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying any 2026 impactors capable of producing 5kt yields, keeping the market-implied probability of a strike modest despite the remaining months in the year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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