Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 সালে স্পেসএক্স স্টারশিপ কতগুলি মহাকাশে পৌঁছেছে?
2026 সালে স্পেসএক্স স্টারশিপ কতগুলি মহাকাশে পৌঁছেছে?
৫-৬ 54%
<৫ 33%
৭-৮ 6.5%
১১-১২ 3.3%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<৫
33%
৫-৬
54%
৭-৮
6%
৯-১০
3%
১১-১২
3%
১৩-১৪
<1%
১৫-১৬
<1%
>১৬
1%
৫-৬ 54%
<৫ 33%
৭-৮ 6.5%
১১-১২ 3.3%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<৫
$99,154 Vol.
33%
৫-৬
$113,820 Vol.
54%
৭-৮
$158,488 Vol.
6%
৯-১০
$61,502 Vol.
3%
১১-১২
$8,397 Vol.
3%
১৩-১৪
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
১৫-১৬
$30,073 Vol.
<1%
>১৬
$12,509 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
ভলিউম
$493,114শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$493,114শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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