Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Seoul and Incheon on August 11 under mostly clear skies, amid persistent summer warmth and elevated humidity that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 23–25°C because small differences in forecast details—such as boundary-layer moisture, light wind regimes, or subtle cloud cover—can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. High dew points typical of August suppress cooling rates, while any increase in low-level moisture or reduced ventilation would favor the lower outcomes. Updated regional model runs and the next KMA short-range briefing represent the key near-term catalysts that could refine these market-implied probabilities.