**Vesuvius remains at green alert with no anomalous activity detected by INGV monitoring networks, following its last eruption in 1944.** This long repose period, combined with stable low-level fumarolic emissions, minimal seismicity, and absence of significant ground deformation or gas flux changes, underpins traders’ 95.2% implied probability of “No” for a VEI 1+ eruption in 2026. VEI 1 events involve modest explosive or effusive activity, but Vesuvius typically shows clear precursory signals—such as elevated earthquake rates or inflation—months to years in advance before entering an eruptive phase. Current data show none of these thresholds crossed, consistent with the volcano’s post-1944 quiescent state. While an abrupt escalation cannot be ruled out entirely, historical patterns and real-time surveillance indicate any unrest would likely require substantial lead time before reaching eruption criteria, keeping the near-term odds heavily weighted toward no event in calendar year 2026.