Short-term numerical weather model consensus from major forecasting centers points to a daily maximum near 28–30°C in Istanbul on August 20 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, aligning with climatological August averages of 27–31°C. High humidity and urban heat-island effects typically elevate perceived temperatures without pushing extremes, while the absence of significant frontal systems or heat-wave patterns keeps probabilities centered on these values. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability, supporting trader focus on the narrow 27–30°C range ahead of final pre-event updates from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service.