China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$40,651,181 交易量
$40,651,181 交易量
2026-12-30
赚 3.25% 收益
是
4% 概率
$40,651,181 交易量
$40,651,181 交易量
2026-12-30
赚 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$40,651,181结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$40,651,181结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETChina’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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