Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset elections follow the July dissolution of the prior legislature, initiating the standard post-election sequence in which the president designates a prime minister candidate to assemble a coalition before seeking a confidence vote. Trader pricing reflects the typical duration of coalition negotiations under proportional representation, where no bloc currently projects a clear 61-seat majority and polls show fragmented results requiring cross-faction deals. With roughly two months between election day and the December 31 resolution window, historical patterns of extended bargaining among multiple parties reduce the likelihood of a completed confidence vote by year-end. Recent polling trends and the absence of pre-election coalition agreements further support this assessment of formation timelines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
40% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset elections follow the July dissolution of the prior legislature, initiating the standard post-election sequence in which the president designates a prime minister candidate to assemble a coalition before seeking a confidence vote. Trader pricing reflects the typical duration of coalition negotiations under proportional representation, where no bloc currently projects a clear 61-seat majority and polls show fragmented results requiring cross-faction deals. With roughly two months between election day and the December 31 resolution window, historical patterns of extended bargaining among multiple parties reduce the likelihood of a completed confidence vote by year-end. Recent polling trends and the absence of pre-election coalition agreements further support this assessment of formation timelines.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
交易量
$1,499结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset elections follow the July dissolution of the prior legislature, initiating the standard post-election sequence in which the president designates a prime minister candidate to assemble a coalition before seeking a confidence vote. Trader pricing reflects the typical duration of coalition negotiations under proportional representation, where no bloc currently projects a clear 61-seat majority and polls show fragmented results requiring cross-faction deals. With roughly two months between election day and the December 31 resolution window, historical patterns of extended bargaining among multiple parties reduce the likelihood of a completed confidence vote by year-end. Recent polling trends and the absence of pre-election coalition agreements further support this assessment of formation timelines.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,499结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset elections follow the July dissolution of the prior legislature, initiating the standard post-election sequence in which the president designates a prime minister candidate to assemble a coalition before seeking a confidence vote. Trader pricing reflects the typical duration of coalition negotiations under proportional representation, where no bloc currently projects a clear 61-seat majority and polls show fragmented results requiring cross-faction deals. With roughly two months between election day and the December 31 resolution window, historical patterns of extended bargaining among multiple parties reduce the likelihood of a completed confidence vote by year-end. Recent polling trends and the absence of pre-election coalition agreements further support this assessment of formation timelines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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