Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc holding near 50 seats while opposition parties aligned with the new Beyachad list edge closer to or above 60, though Arab factions remain excluded from most Zionist coalitions. Traders assign the leading "No" outcome a 64.5% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable right-left bloc alignments, minor parties near the electoral threshold can shift seats decisively, and disciplined coalition partners have repeatedly enabled majority formation without prolonged stalemate. Scheduled candidate list finalization in September and any security developments before voting remain the primary variables that could alter seat totals and coalition math in the 120-seat Knesset.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于36% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-26
36% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-26
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc holding near 50 seats while opposition parties aligned with the new Beyachad list edge closer to or above 60, though Arab factions remain excluded from most Zionist coalitions. Traders assign the leading "No" outcome a 64.5% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable right-left bloc alignments, minor parties near the electoral threshold can shift seats decisively, and disciplined coalition partners have repeatedly enabled majority formation without prolonged stalemate. Scheduled candidate list finalization in September and any security developments before voting remain the primary variables that could alter seat totals and coalition math in the 120-seat Knesset.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
交易量
$2,584结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc holding near 50 seats while opposition parties aligned with the new Beyachad list edge closer to or above 60, though Arab factions remain excluded from most Zionist coalitions. Traders assign the leading "No" outcome a 64.5% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable right-left bloc alignments, minor parties near the electoral threshold can shift seats decisively, and disciplined coalition partners have repeatedly enabled majority formation without prolonged stalemate. Scheduled candidate list finalization in September and any security developments before voting remain the primary variables that could alter seat totals and coalition math in the 120-seat Knesset.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,584结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc holding near 50 seats while opposition parties aligned with the new Beyachad list edge closer to or above 60, though Arab factions remain excluded from most Zionist coalitions. Traders assign the leading "No" outcome a 64.5% implied probability because Israeli elections have historically produced stable right-left bloc alignments, minor parties near the electoral threshold can shift seats decisively, and disciplined coalition partners have repeatedly enabled majority formation without prolonged stalemate. Scheduled candidate list finalization in September and any security developments before voting remain the primary variables that could alter seat totals and coalition math in the 120-seat Knesset.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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