Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote, driving the 87.5% trader consensus on net losses. Key factors include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and the prolonged Gaza conflict, alongside the emergence of competitive centrist and right-leaning alternatives such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and the Bennett-Lapid alliance. Internal Likud primaries completed in mid-August highlighted factional tensions over slate composition, while coalition partners face pressure over issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These dynamics have kept projected totals for the Netanyahu-led bloc below a majority in most surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于87% 概率
$11,128 交易量
$11,128 交易量
2026-10-26
87% 概率
$11,128 交易量
$11,128 交易量
2026-10-26
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote, driving the 87.5% trader consensus on net losses. Key factors include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and the prolonged Gaza conflict, alongside the emergence of competitive centrist and right-leaning alternatives such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and the Bennett-Lapid alliance. Internal Likud primaries completed in mid-August highlighted factional tensions over slate composition, while coalition partners face pressure over issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These dynamics have kept projected totals for the Netanyahu-led bloc below a majority in most surveys.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$11,128结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote, driving the 87.5% trader consensus on net losses. Key factors include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and the prolonged Gaza conflict, alongside the emergence of competitive centrist and right-leaning alternatives such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and the Bennett-Lapid alliance. Internal Likud primaries completed in mid-August highlighted factional tensions over slate composition, while coalition partners face pressure over issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These dynamics have kept projected totals for the Netanyahu-led bloc below a majority in most surveys.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$11,128结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 22–27 seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote, driving the 87.5% trader consensus on net losses. Key factors include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and the prolonged Gaza conflict, alongside the emergence of competitive centrist and right-leaning alternatives such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and the Bennett-Lapid alliance. Internal Likud primaries completed in mid-August highlighted factional tensions over slate composition, while coalition partners face pressure over issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These dynamics have kept projected totals for the Netanyahu-led bloc below a majority in most surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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