A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月1日、2日或3日有记录以来最热？
2026年9月1日、2日或3日有记录以来最热？
第二热 57%
有记录以来最热 36%
第4位或更低 36%
第3热 32%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
有记录以来最热
36%
第二热
57%
第3热
32%
第4位或更低
36%
第二热 57%
有记录以来最热 36%
第4位或更低 36%
第3热 32%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
有记录以来最热
$273 交易量
36%
第二热
$0 交易量
57%
第3热
$0 交易量
32%
第4位或更低
$250 交易量
36%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
交易量
$523结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$523结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETA strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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