North Korea has conducted three reported ballistic missile launch events in August 2026—on August 6 and 12 from the Wonsan area, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range systems from the Pyongyang region on August 20—timed around the scaled-back Ulchi Freedom Shield joint exercises with the United States. The August 20 activity followed President Trump’s directive to reduce drill scope as an overture toward renewed engagement with Kim Jong Un, which North Korean officials, including Kim Yo Jong, publicly dismissed while affirming continued U.S. hostility. With the exercises now concluded and no additional launches detected in the final week of the month, trader consensus reflects the limited remaining window and typical patterns of North Korean testing tied to specific military or diplomatic triggers. Structural factors such as ongoing UN resolutions and routine military training cycles continue to shape activity levels without indicating an imminent surge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于4次 56%
4 26.5%
5 9%
6+ 5.2%
$20,650 交易量
$20,650 交易量
2026-08-31
少于4次
56%
4
27%
5
9%
6+
5%
少于4次 56%
4 26.5%
5 9%
6+ 5.2%
$20,650 交易量
$20,650 交易量
2026-08-31
少于4次
$2,265 交易量
56%
4
$632 交易量
27%
5
$247 交易量
9%
6+
$17,506 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted three reported ballistic missile launch events in August 2026—on August 6 and 12 from the Wonsan area, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range systems from the Pyongyang region on August 20—timed around the scaled-back Ulchi Freedom Shield joint exercises with the United States. The August 20 activity followed President Trump’s directive to reduce drill scope as an overture toward renewed engagement with Kim Jong Un, which North Korean officials, including Kim Yo Jong, publicly dismissed while affirming continued U.S. hostility. With the exercises now concluded and no additional launches detected in the final week of the month, trader consensus reflects the limited remaining window and typical patterns of North Korean testing tied to specific military or diplomatic triggers. Structural factors such as ongoing UN resolutions and routine military training cycles continue to shape activity levels without indicating an imminent surge.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
交易量
$20,650结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted three reported ballistic missile launch events in August 2026—on August 6 and 12 from the Wonsan area, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range systems from the Pyongyang region on August 20—timed around the scaled-back Ulchi Freedom Shield joint exercises with the United States. The August 20 activity followed President Trump’s directive to reduce drill scope as an overture toward renewed engagement with Kim Jong Un, which North Korean officials, including Kim Yo Jong, publicly dismissed while affirming continued U.S. hostility. With the exercises now concluded and no additional launches detected in the final week of the month, trader consensus reflects the limited remaining window and typical patterns of North Korean testing tied to specific military or diplomatic triggers. Structural factors such as ongoing UN resolutions and routine military training cycles continue to shape activity levels without indicating an imminent surge.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$20,650结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea has conducted three reported ballistic missile launch events in August 2026—on August 6 and 12 from the Wonsan area, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range systems from the Pyongyang region on August 20—timed around the scaled-back Ulchi Freedom Shield joint exercises with the United States. The August 20 activity followed President Trump’s directive to reduce drill scope as an overture toward renewed engagement with Kim Jong Un, which North Korean officials, including Kim Yo Jong, publicly dismissed while affirming continued U.S. hostility. With the exercises now concluded and no additional launches detected in the final week of the month, trader consensus reflects the limited remaining window and typical patterns of North Korean testing tied to specific military or diplomatic triggers. Structural factors such as ongoing UN resolutions and routine military training cycles continue to shape activity levels without indicating an imminent surge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题