Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with over 77 percent of the vote, positioning him to defend a district with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential results exceeding 70 percent support. The area's rural and conservative voter base, combined with Alford's established name recognition from prior terms since 2022, underpins the 92 percent trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome in the November general election. A Democratic nominee emerged from a fragmented primary but faces structural challenges in a seat rated solidly Republican by forecasters. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$44,542 交易量
$44,542 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
9%
$44,542 交易量
$44,542 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$28,293 交易量
92%
民主党
$16,249 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with over 77 percent of the vote, positioning him to defend a district with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential results exceeding 70 percent support. The area's rural and conservative voter base, combined with Alford's established name recognition from prior terms since 2022, underpins the 92 percent trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome in the November general election. A Democratic nominee emerged from a fragmented primary but faces structural challenges in a seat rated solidly Republican by forecasters. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$44,542结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with over 77 percent of the vote, positioning him to defend a district with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential results exceeding 70 percent support. The area's rural and conservative voter base, combined with Alford's established name recognition from prior terms since 2022, underpins the 92 percent trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome in the November general election. A Democratic nominee emerged from a fragmented primary but faces structural challenges in a seat rated solidly Republican by forecasters. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$44,542结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with over 77 percent of the vote, positioning him to defend a district with a strong Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential results exceeding 70 percent support. The area's rural and conservative voter base, combined with Alford's established name recognition from prior terms since 2022, underpins the 92 percent trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome in the November general election. A Democratic nominee emerged from a fragmented primary but faces structural challenges in a seat rated solidly Republican by forecasters. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths for reversal before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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