Recent low Arctic sea ice conditions, with July 2026 extent at 9.07 million sq km (fifth lowest on record) following a near-record low March maximum of ~14.3 million sq km, drive the clustered trader odds around 4.0–4.8 million sq km for the September minimum. Warm surface air temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and ocean heat content accelerate melt via albedo feedback, while atmospheric patterns such as persistent high pressure influence regional ice loss rates. NSIDC and OSI SAF data show 2026 tracking below the 1981–2010 average but with model spread on peak melt timing and intensity creating the tight distribution across leading bins; updated satellite observations through mid-September will resolve the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
420万-440万平方公里 23.6%
少于400万平方公里 20%
460万-480万平方公里 19.3%
440万-460万平方公里 16.3%
$65,565 交易量
$65,565 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
20%
400-420万平方公里
14%
420万-440万平方公里
24%
440万-460万平方公里
16%
460万-480万平方公里
19%
480万-500万平方公里
3%
500万平方公里以上
6%
420万-440万平方公里 23.6%
少于400万平方公里 20%
460万-480万平方公里 19.3%
440万-460万平方公里 16.3%
$65,565 交易量
$65,565 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$29,945 交易量
20%
400-420万平方公里
$6,392 交易量
14%
420万-440万平方公里
$2,714 交易量
24%
440万-460万平方公里
$2,907 交易量
16%
460万-480万平方公里
$6,513 交易量
19%
480万-500万平方公里
$2,757 交易量
3%
500万平方公里以上
$14,336 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low Arctic sea ice conditions, with July 2026 extent at 9.07 million sq km (fifth lowest on record) following a near-record low March maximum of ~14.3 million sq km, drive the clustered trader odds around 4.0–4.8 million sq km for the September minimum. Warm surface air temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and ocean heat content accelerate melt via albedo feedback, while atmospheric patterns such as persistent high pressure influence regional ice loss rates. NSIDC and OSI SAF data show 2026 tracking below the 1981–2010 average but with model spread on peak melt timing and intensity creating the tight distribution across leading bins; updated satellite observations through mid-September will resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$65,565结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low Arctic sea ice conditions, with July 2026 extent at 9.07 million sq km (fifth lowest on record) following a near-record low March maximum of ~14.3 million sq km, drive the clustered trader odds around 4.0–4.8 million sq km for the September minimum. Warm surface air temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and ocean heat content accelerate melt via albedo feedback, while atmospheric patterns such as persistent high pressure influence regional ice loss rates. NSIDC and OSI SAF data show 2026 tracking below the 1981–2010 average but with model spread on peak melt timing and intensity creating the tight distribution across leading bins; updated satellite observations through mid-September will resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$65,565结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low Arctic sea ice conditions, with July 2026 extent at 9.07 million sq km (fifth lowest on record) following a near-record low March maximum of ~14.3 million sq km, drive the clustered trader odds around 4.0–4.8 million sq km for the September minimum. Warm surface air temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and ocean heat content accelerate melt via albedo feedback, while atmospheric patterns such as persistent high pressure influence regional ice loss rates. NSIDC and OSI SAF data show 2026 tracking below the 1981–2010 average but with model spread on peak melt timing and intensity creating the tight distribution across leading bins; updated satellite observations through mid-September will resolve the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题