Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president in January 2025 to a standard six-year term extending through 2031, placing him firmly in office past the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. As of August 2026 he remains actively engaged in U.S.-mediated talks with Israel, White House diplomacy including a July meeting with President Trump, and efforts to assert state control over arms and implement the post-ceasefire framework. These developments, combined with the absence of parliamentary moves, constitutional challenges, or reported domestic crises that would trigger early removal, underpin the 96% trader consensus on “No.” While a sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp escalation in regional conflict could theoretically alter the timeline, current political and institutional conditions show no credible path to departure before year-end.