Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key node in Ukraine’s eastern defensive network known as the fortress belt. By early July 2026, Moscow claimed full seizure of the city following months of infiltration and urban fighting, though Ukrainian officials and independent assessments confirmed only partial Russian entry without consolidation of control. As of late July, reports indicated Russian units had penetrated most of the urban area, prompting Ukrainian military adjustments amid ongoing drone strikes and close-quarters engagements. Trader sentiment on specific-site capture markets reflects the slow pace of Russian advances, high casualties, and uncertainty over whether infiltration will translate into verified, sustained control of landmarks before any market resolution date. Diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have not altered frontline dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
9月30日
25%
10月31日
52%
12月31日
74%
$945 交易量
9月30日
$40 交易量
25%
10月31日
$70 交易量
52%
12月31日
$835 交易量
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key node in Ukraine’s eastern defensive network known as the fortress belt. By early July 2026, Moscow claimed full seizure of the city following months of infiltration and urban fighting, though Ukrainian officials and independent assessments confirmed only partial Russian entry without consolidation of control. As of late July, reports indicated Russian units had penetrated most of the urban area, prompting Ukrainian military adjustments amid ongoing drone strikes and close-quarters engagements. Trader sentiment on specific-site capture markets reflects the slow pace of Russian advances, high casualties, and uncertainty over whether infiltration will translate into verified, sustained control of landmarks before any market resolution date. Diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have not altered frontline dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$945结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key node in Ukraine’s eastern defensive network known as the fortress belt. By early July 2026, Moscow claimed full seizure of the city following months of infiltration and urban fighting, though Ukrainian officials and independent assessments confirmed only partial Russian entry without consolidation of control. As of late July, reports indicated Russian units had penetrated most of the urban area, prompting Ukrainian military adjustments amid ongoing drone strikes and close-quarters engagements. Trader sentiment on specific-site capture markets reflects the slow pace of Russian advances, high casualties, and uncertainty over whether infiltration will translate into verified, sustained control of landmarks before any market resolution date. Diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have not altered frontline dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
交易量
$945结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key node in Ukraine’s eastern defensive network known as the fortress belt. By early July 2026, Moscow claimed full seizure of the city following months of infiltration and urban fighting, though Ukrainian officials and independent assessments confirmed only partial Russian entry without consolidation of control. As of late July, reports indicated Russian units had penetrated most of the urban area, prompting Ukrainian military adjustments amid ongoing drone strikes and close-quarters engagements. Trader sentiment on specific-site capture markets reflects the slow pace of Russian advances, high casualties, and uncertainty over whether infiltration will translate into verified, sustained control of landmarks before any market resolution date. Diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have not altered frontline dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题