Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, 2026, targeted facilities undergoing Turkish-assisted rehabilitation, signaling red lines against Turkish military entrenchment near the border. Ankara denied deployment plans, condemned the action as a sovereignty violation, and issued an Interpol red notice for Israeli officials tied to a separate Gaza flotilla incident. Both governments have exchanged sharp rhetoric over Syrian influence, yet maintained backchannel communications and participated in U.S.-mediated talks aimed at deconfliction mechanisms. NATO membership, shared Western partnerships, and the high costs of direct engagement have kept competition focused on Syrian proxies and diplomatic pressure rather than open hostilities, supporting trader expectations that a bilateral military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
$424,446 交易量
$424,446 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 概率
$424,446 交易量
$424,446 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, 2026, targeted facilities undergoing Turkish-assisted rehabilitation, signaling red lines against Turkish military entrenchment near the border. Ankara denied deployment plans, condemned the action as a sovereignty violation, and issued an Interpol red notice for Israeli officials tied to a separate Gaza flotilla incident. Both governments have exchanged sharp rhetoric over Syrian influence, yet maintained backchannel communications and participated in U.S.-mediated talks aimed at deconfliction mechanisms. NATO membership, shared Western partnerships, and the high costs of direct engagement have kept competition focused on Syrian proxies and diplomatic pressure rather than open hostilities, supporting trader expectations that a bilateral military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$424,446结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, 2026, targeted facilities undergoing Turkish-assisted rehabilitation, signaling red lines against Turkish military entrenchment near the border. Ankara denied deployment plans, condemned the action as a sovereignty violation, and issued an Interpol red notice for Israeli officials tied to a separate Gaza flotilla incident. Both governments have exchanged sharp rhetoric over Syrian influence, yet maintained backchannel communications and participated in U.S.-mediated talks aimed at deconfliction mechanisms. NATO membership, shared Western partnerships, and the high costs of direct engagement have kept competition focused on Syrian proxies and diplomatic pressure rather than open hostilities, supporting trader expectations that a bilateral military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$424,446结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETIsraeli airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, 2026, targeted facilities undergoing Turkish-assisted rehabilitation, signaling red lines against Turkish military entrenchment near the border. Ankara denied deployment plans, condemned the action as a sovereignty violation, and issued an Interpol red notice for Israeli officials tied to a separate Gaza flotilla incident. Both governments have exchanged sharp rhetoric over Syrian influence, yet maintained backchannel communications and participated in U.S.-mediated talks aimed at deconfliction mechanisms. NATO membership, shared Western partnerships, and the high costs of direct engagement have kept competition focused on Syrian proxies and diplomatic pressure rather than open hostilities, supporting trader expectations that a bilateral military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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