The Bank of Israel’s September 1 decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, the third consecutive reduction amid July inflation at 1.5 percent and a strong shekel, has positioned the Monetary Committee to pause at its October 21 meeting. Traders assign a 75 percent probability to no change because recent easing already lowered borrowing costs while inflation expectations remain anchored near the target midpoint and fiscal pressures ahead of the October 27 elections add caution. A 25 percent chance of another cut persists if incoming data show continued subdued price pressures and limited pass-through from recent policy moves, though global signals of tighter policy elsewhere and potential shekel volatility limit further easing. An increase remains priced at just 1 percent given the current inflation trajectory and the committee’s data-dependent stance.