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国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?

icon for 国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?

国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?

$363,800 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$363,800 交易量

Polymarket

8月31日

$57,346 交易量

1%

10月31日

$80,745 交易量

6%

12月31日

$32,385 交易量

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Following the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and additional attacks in early 2026, the IAEA lost physical access to the enrichment sites at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz, halting verification activities under Iran's NPT safeguards agreement. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly references IAEA supervision of nuclear material and facilities, prompting Director General Rafael Grossi to state that inspections will occur and that modalities are under discussion with Tehran. Iranian officials, however, have conditioned any return to the damaged sites on completion of a final agreement and sanctions relief, with no confirmed visits reported since the conflict. Satellite imagery continues to show activity at storage tunnels, particularly at Isfahan, while ongoing US-Iran talks and potential diplomatic timelines remain the main variables that could enable or delay IAEA entry to these locations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$363,800
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Following the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and additional attacks in early 2026, the IAEA lost physical access to the enrichment sites at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz, halting verification activities under Iran's NPT safeguards agreement. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding explicitly references IAEA supervision of nuclear material and facilities, prompting Director General Rafael Grossi to state that inspections will occur and that modalities are under discussion with Tehran. Iranian officials, however, have conditioned any return to the damaged sites on completion of a final agreement and sanctions relief, with no confirmed visits reported since the conflict. Satellite imagery continues to show activity at storage tunnels, particularly at Isfahan, while ongoing US-Iran talks and potential diplomatic timelines remain the main variables that could enable or delay IAEA entry to these locations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$363,800
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"12月31日",概率为 13%,其次是"10月31日",概率为 6%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 13¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 13%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?"已产生 $363.8K 的总交易量(自Jun 24, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?"的当前领先者是"12月31日",概率为 13%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 13%。紧随其后的结果是"10月31日",概率为 6%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"国际原子能机构通过……访问伊斯法罕、福尔多或纳坦兹核设施?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。