**Seven Republican Senate incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, establishing the clear trader consensus reflected in the 78% probability for that outcome.** These include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK, serving the remainder of an appointed term), and one additional senator consistent with Ballotpedia and other trackers as of mid-2026. Primary defeats, such as those of Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX), have not altered the total beyond this figure. No major new retirement announcements or primary upsets have emerged in recent weeks to shift the count, and the market assigns low probability to higher or lower totals. Traders appear to view the current roster of departures as largely settled ahead of the general election cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7 78%
11 6.2%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 交易量
$101,131 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
6%
12人以上
<1%
7 78%
11 6.2%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 交易量
$101,131 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
$22,734 交易量
1%
5
$17,511 交易量
3%
6
$27,247 交易量
1%
7
$16,977 交易量
78%
8
$4,623 交易量
1%
9
$2,208 交易量
5%
10
$1,873 交易量
1%
11
$2,845 交易量
6%
12人以上
$5,112 交易量
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senate incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, establishing the clear trader consensus reflected in the 78% probability for that outcome.** These include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK, serving the remainder of an appointed term), and one additional senator consistent with Ballotpedia and other trackers as of mid-2026. Primary defeats, such as those of Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX), have not altered the total beyond this figure. No major new retirement announcements or primary upsets have emerged in recent weeks to shift the count, and the market assigns low probability to higher or lower totals. Traders appear to view the current roster of departures as largely settled ahead of the general election cycle.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$101,131结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senate incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, establishing the clear trader consensus reflected in the 78% probability for that outcome.** These include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK, serving the remainder of an appointed term), and one additional senator consistent with Ballotpedia and other trackers as of mid-2026. Primary defeats, such as those of Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX), have not altered the total beyond this figure. No major new retirement announcements or primary upsets have emerged in recent weeks to shift the count, and the market assigns low probability to higher or lower totals. Traders appear to view the current roster of departures as largely settled ahead of the general election cycle.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$101,131结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican Senate incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, establishing the clear trader consensus reflected in the 78% probability for that outcome.** These include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK, serving the remainder of an appointed term), and one additional senator consistent with Ballotpedia and other trackers as of mid-2026. Primary defeats, such as those of Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX), have not altered the total beyond this figure. No major new retirement announcements or primary upsets have emerged in recent weeks to shift the count, and the market assigns low probability to higher or lower totals. Traders appear to view the current roster of departures as largely settled ahead of the general election cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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