NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年大西洋飓风季节将形成多少次飓风？
2026年大西洋飓风季节将形成多少次飓风？
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 8%
0 6%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
0
6%
1-3
40%
4-6
40%
7+
8%
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 8%
0 6%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
0
$79 交易量
6%
1-3
$91 交易量
40%
4-6
$316 交易量
40%
7+
$98 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
市场开放时间： Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
交易量
$584结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
交易量
$584结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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