Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月1日东京气温最高？
9月1日东京气温最高？
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
17%
30°C
33%
31°C
27%
32°C
12%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
26°C or below
$158 交易量
<1%
27°C
$67 交易量
2%
28°C
$265 交易量
6%
29°C
$443 交易量
17%
30°C
$205 交易量
33%
31°C
$190 交易量
27%
32°C
$278 交易量
12%
33°C
$81 交易量
5%
34°C
$90 交易量
2%
35°C
$105 交易量
1%
36°C or higher
$117 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,999结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,999结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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