Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月21日休斯顿的最高温度？
9月21日休斯顿的最高温度？
94-95°F 55%
96-97°F 22%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
85°F或以下
5%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
13%
94-95°F
51%
96-97°F
22%
98-99°F
19%
100-101°F
11%
102-103°F
5%
104华氏度或更高
5%
94-95°F 55%
96-97°F 22%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
85°F或以下
$0 交易量
5%
86-87°F
$0 交易量
5%
88-89°F
$0 交易量
7%
90-91°F
$0 交易量
11%
92-93°F
$0 交易量
13%
94-95°F
$127 交易量
51%
96-97°F
$0 交易量
22%
98-99°F
$0 交易量
19%
100-101°F
$0 交易量
11%
102-103°F
$0 交易量
5%
104华氏度或更高
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
交易量
$127结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$127结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETCurrent forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题