Trader consensus currently assigns a 64% implied probability against frontier AI labs announcing a qualifying joint pacing agreement by year-end, driven by the gap between recent public signaling and the absence of any formal, announced coordination meeting the market's criteria. Dario Amodei's mid-September essay calling for embedded evaluators, common safety standards, and paced progress drew quick endorsements from OpenAI's Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis, while working groups involving OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have discussed voluntary standards since July. These steps remain preliminary, however, with no announced structure, antitrust waivers, or commitments on compute caps, recursive self-improvement limits, or release conditions. Ongoing talks face competitive and international hurdles, and traders appear to view meaningful resolution before December 31 as unlikely without sharper catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
36% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
36% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus currently assigns a 64% implied probability against frontier AI labs announcing a qualifying joint pacing agreement by year-end, driven by the gap between recent public signaling and the absence of any formal, announced coordination meeting the market's criteria. Dario Amodei's mid-September essay calling for embedded evaluators, common safety standards, and paced progress drew quick endorsements from OpenAI's Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis, while working groups involving OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have discussed voluntary standards since July. These steps remain preliminary, however, with no announced structure, antitrust waivers, or commitments on compute caps, recursive self-improvement limits, or release conditions. Ongoing talks face competitive and international hurdles, and traders appear to view meaningful resolution before December 31 as unlikely without sharper catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$112结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus currently assigns a 64% implied probability against frontier AI labs announcing a qualifying joint pacing agreement by year-end, driven by the gap between recent public signaling and the absence of any formal, announced coordination meeting the market's criteria. Dario Amodei's mid-September essay calling for embedded evaluators, common safety standards, and paced progress drew quick endorsements from OpenAI's Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis, while working groups involving OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have discussed voluntary standards since July. These steps remain preliminary, however, with no announced structure, antitrust waivers, or commitments on compute caps, recursive self-improvement limits, or release conditions. Ongoing talks face competitive and international hurdles, and traders appear to view meaningful resolution before December 31 as unlikely without sharper catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta. A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, express support for the idea of an agreement, or otherwise do not explicitly confirm acceptance of an agreement will not qualify. An agreement that applies only to a defined class of the parties' models (e.g. frontier models or models above a capability threshold) will qualify. An agreement brokered by or including a government will qualify, provided at least two frontier AI labs are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the frontier AI labs; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$112结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 8:03 PM ETTrader consensus currently assigns a 64% implied probability against frontier AI labs announcing a qualifying joint pacing agreement by year-end, driven by the gap between recent public signaling and the absence of any formal, announced coordination meeting the market's criteria. Dario Amodei's mid-September essay calling for embedded evaluators, common safety standards, and paced progress drew quick endorsements from OpenAI's Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis, while working groups involving OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have discussed voluntary standards since July. These steps remain preliminary, however, with no announced structure, antitrust waivers, or commitments on compute caps, recursive self-improvement limits, or release conditions. Ongoing talks face competitive and international hurdles, and traders appear to view meaningful resolution before December 31 as unlikely without sharper catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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