**Elevated inflation and energy price pressures are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 and October 28 meetings.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target range remains 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold (9-3 vote). Persistent readings above the 2% goal, combined with a still-solid labor market, have shifted consensus toward steady policy or modest hikes rather than cuts, consistent with the 63.5% “Other” probability versus 35% for three straight pauses. The upcoming September dot plot and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$747,243 交易量
$747,243 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$747,243 交易量
$747,243 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,242 交易量
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,459 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 交易量
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 交易量
<1%
Other
$319,434 交易量
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and energy price pressures are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 and October 28 meetings.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target range remains 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold (9-3 vote). Persistent readings above the 2% goal, combined with a still-solid labor market, have shifted consensus toward steady policy or modest hikes rather than cuts, consistent with the 63.5% “Other” probability versus 35% for three straight pauses. The upcoming September dot plot and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$747,243结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and energy price pressures are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 and October 28 meetings.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target range remains 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold (9-3 vote). Persistent readings above the 2% goal, combined with a still-solid labor market, have shifted consensus toward steady policy or modest hikes rather than cuts, consistent with the 63.5% “Other” probability versus 35% for three straight pauses. The upcoming September dot plot and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$747,243结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET**Elevated inflation and energy price pressures are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 and October 28 meetings.** July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the target range remains 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold (9-3 vote). Persistent readings above the 2% goal, combined with a still-solid labor market, have shifted consensus toward steady policy or modest hikes rather than cuts, consistent with the 63.5% “Other” probability versus 35% for three straight pauses. The upcoming September dot plot and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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