Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October sequence. Persistent price pressures and earlier hawkish dot-plot shifts have elevated the odds of at least one hike, pushing “Other” sequences to 62% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%. Recent softening in employment and retail-sales data has tempered September hike probabilities ahead of the September 15–16 meeting with updated projections, yet core PCE readings and energy-price risks continue to support a higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of data dependence and policy uncertainty through October.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,035 交易量
$748,035 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,035 交易量
$748,035 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,736 交易量
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,624 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 交易量
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 交易量
<1%
Other
$319,567 交易量
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October sequence. Persistent price pressures and earlier hawkish dot-plot shifts have elevated the odds of at least one hike, pushing “Other” sequences to 62% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%. Recent softening in employment and retail-sales data has tempered September hike probabilities ahead of the September 15–16 meeting with updated projections, yet core PCE readings and energy-price risks continue to support a higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of data dependence and policy uncertainty through October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$748,035结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October sequence. Persistent price pressures and earlier hawkish dot-plot shifts have elevated the odds of at least one hike, pushing “Other” sequences to 62% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%. Recent softening in employment and retail-sales data has tempered September hike probabilities ahead of the September 15–16 meeting with updated projections, yet core PCE readings and energy-price risks continue to support a higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of data dependence and policy uncertainty through October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$748,035结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETElevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October sequence. Persistent price pressures and earlier hawkish dot-plot shifts have elevated the odds of at least one hike, pushing “Other” sequences to 62% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%. Recent softening in employment and retail-sales data has tempered September hike probabilities ahead of the September 15–16 meeting with updated projections, yet core PCE readings and energy-price risks continue to support a higher-for-longer path. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of data dependence and policy uncertainty through October.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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