Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen in a narrow band around 15-18 percent, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on the 14-17 percent interval. The party, led by mayoral candidate Werner Graf, trails its 18.4 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote amid a tight five-party contest where Die Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18 percent in late August surveys. Modest declines for the Greens relative to earlier 2026 trends reflect broader shifts toward Linke and AfD support, with SPD remaining weak. Limited volatility in the final weeks has kept the probability of exceeding 20 percent or falling below 14 percent low, as traders align with the stable polling range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于14-17% 48%
17-20% 31%
低于14% 22%
20%+ 4.1%
$19,049 交易量
$19,049 交易量
2026-09-20
低于14%
22%
14-17%
48%
17-20%
31%
20%+
4%
14-17% 48%
17-20% 31%
低于14% 22%
20%+ 4.1%
$19,049 交易量
$19,049 交易量
2026-09-20
低于14%
$10,030 交易量
22%
14-17%
$7,361 交易量
48%
17-20%
$1,236 交易量
31%
20%+
$422 交易量
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen in a narrow band around 15-18 percent, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on the 14-17 percent interval. The party, led by mayoral candidate Werner Graf, trails its 18.4 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote amid a tight five-party contest where Die Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18 percent in late August surveys. Modest declines for the Greens relative to earlier 2026 trends reflect broader shifts toward Linke and AfD support, with SPD remaining weak. Limited volatility in the final weeks has kept the probability of exceeding 20 percent or falling below 14 percent low, as traders align with the stable polling range.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$19,049结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen in a narrow band around 15-18 percent, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on the 14-17 percent interval. The party, led by mayoral candidate Werner Graf, trails its 18.4 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote amid a tight five-party contest where Die Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18 percent in late August surveys. Modest declines for the Greens relative to earlier 2026 trends reflect broader shifts toward Linke and AfD support, with SPD remaining weak. Limited volatility in the final weeks has kept the probability of exceeding 20 percent or falling below 14 percent low, as traders align with the stable polling range.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$19,049结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRecent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places Bündnis 90/Die Grünen in a narrow band around 15-18 percent, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on the 14-17 percent interval. The party, led by mayoral candidate Werner Graf, trails its 18.4 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote amid a tight five-party contest where Die Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18 percent in late August surveys. Modest declines for the Greens relative to earlier 2026 trends reflect broader shifts toward Linke and AfD support, with SPD remaining weak. Limited volatility in the final weeks has kept the probability of exceeding 20 percent or falling below 14 percent low, as traders align with the stable polling range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题