The race for Washington's 3rd congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November general election because the swing district narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024 while Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won reelection by single digits in both 2022 and 2024. Top-two primary results produced a narrow edge for Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun over Gluesenkamp Perez, confirming expectations of a head-to-head battle in a seat rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Recent Emerson polling showed the candidates statistically tied, with limited subsequent surveys and no major post-primary shifts in momentum. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects the district's balanced partisan lean, Perez's fundraising and incumbency advantages, and Braun's Trump endorsement and institutional profile, leaving room for late campaign developments such as turnout patterns or national conditions to influence the final spread.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於共和黨 3-6% 43%
共和黨 6-9% 42%
民主黨 15%+ 42%
民主黨 6-9% 42%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨 15%+
42%
民主黨 12-15%
41%
民主黨 9-12%
41%
民主黨 6-9%
42%
民主黨 3-6%
42%
民主黨 0-3%
42%
共和黨 0-3%
41%
共和黨 3-6%
43%
共和黨 6-9%
42%
共和黨9%+
41%
共和黨 3-6% 43%
共和黨 6-9% 42%
民主黨 15%+ 42%
民主黨 6-9% 42%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨 15%+
$0 交易量
42%
民主黨 12-15%
$0 交易量
41%
民主黨 9-12%
$0 交易量
41%
民主黨 6-9%
$0 交易量
42%
民主黨 3-6%
$0 交易量
42%
民主黨 0-3%
$0 交易量
42%
共和黨 0-3%
$0 交易量
41%
共和黨 3-6%
$0 交易量
43%
共和黨 6-9%
$0 交易量
42%
共和黨9%+
$0 交易量
41%
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The race for Washington's 3rd congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November general election because the swing district narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024 while Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won reelection by single digits in both 2022 and 2024. Top-two primary results produced a narrow edge for Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun over Gluesenkamp Perez, confirming expectations of a head-to-head battle in a seat rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Recent Emerson polling showed the candidates statistically tied, with limited subsequent surveys and no major post-primary shifts in momentum. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects the district's balanced partisan lean, Perez's fundraising and incumbency advantages, and Braun's Trump endorsement and institutional profile, leaving room for late campaign developments such as turnout patterns or national conditions to influence the final spread.
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETThe 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The race for Washington's 3rd congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November general election because the swing district narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024 while Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won reelection by single digits in both 2022 and 2024. Top-two primary results produced a narrow edge for Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun over Gluesenkamp Perez, confirming expectations of a head-to-head battle in a seat rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Recent Emerson polling showed the candidates statistically tied, with limited subsequent surveys and no major post-primary shifts in momentum. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects the district's balanced partisan lean, Perez's fundraising and incumbency advantages, and Braun's Trump endorsement and institutional profile, leaving room for late campaign developments such as turnout patterns or national conditions to influence the final spread.
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETThe race for Washington's 3rd congressional district remains tightly contested heading into the November general election because the swing district narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024 while Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won reelection by single digits in both 2022 and 2024. Top-two primary results produced a narrow edge for Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun over Gluesenkamp Perez, confirming expectations of a head-to-head battle in a seat rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Recent Emerson polling showed the candidates statistically tied, with limited subsequent surveys and no major post-primary shifts in momentum. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects the district's balanced partisan lean, Perez's fundraising and incumbency advantages, and Braun's Trump endorsement and institutional profile, leaving room for late campaign developments such as turnout patterns or national conditions to influence the final spread.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions