Recent opinion polls place the Social Democrats (S) in a narrow range around 31%, with the May Statistics Sweden survey at 33.9% and subsequent Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings from June–July 2026 falling between 30.2% and 32.6%. This positioning near the 31% threshold reflects voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Tidö government’s handling of integration, crime, and public services, balanced against modest S declines in some late-spring and summer surveys and the party’s historical 30.3% result in 2022. Coalition dynamics, including the April 2026 agreement expanding Sweden Democrats influence, and the pronounced gender gap in support further sustain uncertainty. With the September 13 election just weeks away, late campaign developments on economic policy, turnout differentials, or bloc negotiations could readily shift S support across the line.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Over
54% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-13
Over
54% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-13
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls place the Social Democrats (S) in a narrow range around 31%, with the May Statistics Sweden survey at 33.9% and subsequent Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings from June–July 2026 falling between 30.2% and 32.6%. This positioning near the 31% threshold reflects voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Tidö government’s handling of integration, crime, and public services, balanced against modest S declines in some late-spring and summer surveys and the party’s historical 30.3% result in 2022. Coalition dynamics, including the April 2026 agreement expanding Sweden Democrats influence, and the pronounced gender gap in support further sustain uncertainty. With the September 13 election just weeks away, late campaign developments on economic policy, turnout differentials, or bloc negotiations could readily shift S support across the line.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
交易量
$41結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls place the Social Democrats (S) in a narrow range around 31%, with the May Statistics Sweden survey at 33.9% and subsequent Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings from June–July 2026 falling between 30.2% and 32.6%. This positioning near the 31% threshold reflects voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Tidö government’s handling of integration, crime, and public services, balanced against modest S declines in some late-spring and summer surveys and the party’s historical 30.3% result in 2022. Coalition dynamics, including the April 2026 agreement expanding Sweden Democrats influence, and the pronounced gender gap in support further sustain uncertainty. With the September 13 election just weeks away, late campaign developments on economic policy, turnout differentials, or bloc negotiations could readily shift S support across the line.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
交易量
$41結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls place the Social Democrats (S) in a narrow range around 31%, with the May Statistics Sweden survey at 33.9% and subsequent Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings from June–July 2026 falling between 30.2% and 32.6%. This positioning near the 31% threshold reflects voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Tidö government’s handling of integration, crime, and public services, balanced against modest S declines in some late-spring and summer surveys and the party’s historical 30.3% result in 2022. Coalition dynamics, including the April 2026 agreement expanding Sweden Democrats influence, and the pronounced gender gap in support further sustain uncertainty. With the September 13 election just weeks away, late campaign developments on economic policy, turnout differentials, or bloc negotiations could readily shift S support across the line.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions