Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election shows the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) holding steady support near or above the 6% threshold, with July and June surveys from Novus, Indikator Opinion, and Demoskop placing it between 6.2% and 7.0%. The SCB party-preference survey in May recorded 6.1–6.4%, marking a statistically significant rise from the prior year. Traders appear to weigh this sustained positioning—alongside the party’s stated preference for post-election government formation excluding both the Left Party and Sweden Democrats—against the narrow margin around the cutoff and the limited time remaining before voting. Current implied probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these stable but close readings as favoring an outcome above 6%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Over
71% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-13
Over
71% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-13
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election shows the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) holding steady support near or above the 6% threshold, with July and June surveys from Novus, Indikator Opinion, and Demoskop placing it between 6.2% and 7.0%. The SCB party-preference survey in May recorded 6.1–6.4%, marking a statistically significant rise from the prior year. Traders appear to weigh this sustained positioning—alongside the party’s stated preference for post-election government formation excluding both the Left Party and Sweden Democrats—against the narrow margin around the cutoff and the limited time remaining before voting. Current implied probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these stable but close readings as favoring an outcome above 6%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
交易量
$116結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election shows the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) holding steady support near or above the 6% threshold, with July and June surveys from Novus, Indikator Opinion, and Demoskop placing it between 6.2% and 7.0%. The SCB party-preference survey in May recorded 6.1–6.4%, marking a statistically significant rise from the prior year. Traders appear to weigh this sustained positioning—alongside the party’s stated preference for post-election government formation excluding both the Left Party and Sweden Democrats—against the narrow margin around the cutoff and the limited time remaining before voting. Current implied probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these stable but close readings as favoring an outcome above 6%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
交易量
$116結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election shows the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) holding steady support near or above the 6% threshold, with July and June surveys from Novus, Indikator Opinion, and Demoskop placing it between 6.2% and 7.0%. The SCB party-preference survey in May recorded 6.1–6.4%, marking a statistically significant rise from the prior year. Traders appear to weigh this sustained positioning—alongside the party’s stated preference for post-election government formation excluding both the Left Party and Sweden Democrats—against the narrow margin around the cutoff and the limited time remaining before voting. Current implied probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing these stable but close readings as favoring an outcome above 6%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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