Madeleine Dean, the Democratic incumbent since 2019, holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean in Montgomery and Berks counties, her unopposed primary win, and broad nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her primary outright, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects this entrenched positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national turnout surges could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show few pathways for reversal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,259 交易量
$19,259 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,259 交易量
$19,259 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$6,759 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$12,501 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Madeleine Dean, the Democratic incumbent since 2019, holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean in Montgomery and Berks counties, her unopposed primary win, and broad nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her primary outright, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects this entrenched positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national turnout surges could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show few pathways for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$19,259結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Madeleine Dean, the Democratic incumbent since 2019, holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean in Montgomery and Berks counties, her unopposed primary win, and broad nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her primary outright, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects this entrenched positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national turnout surges could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show few pathways for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,259結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETMadeleine Dean, the Democratic incumbent since 2019, holds a commanding lead in the Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean in Montgomery and Berks counties, her unopposed primary win, and broad nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her primary outright, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects this entrenched positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unexpected national turnout surges could still narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show few pathways for reversal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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