Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg with roughly 39 percent of the vote. Retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler endorsed Lasher, who also received support from Governor Kathy Hochul and substantial outside spending from a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing the Upper East and West Sides and Midtown, has long favored Democrats, with Nadler previously winning by margins exceeding 80 percent. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee who advanced without primary opposition, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for late developments to alter the established partisan baseline reflected in current market pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$32,897 交易量
$32,897 交易量
2026-11-02
Micah Lasher（民主黨）
97%
Caroline Shinkle（共和黨）
<1%
$32,897 交易量
$32,897 交易量
2026-11-02
Micah Lasher（民主黨）
$17,262 交易量
97%
Caroline Shinkle（共和黨）
$15,635 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg with roughly 39 percent of the vote. Retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler endorsed Lasher, who also received support from Governor Kathy Hochul and substantial outside spending from a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing the Upper East and West Sides and Midtown, has long favored Democrats, with Nadler previously winning by margins exceeding 80 percent. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee who advanced without primary opposition, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for late developments to alter the established partisan baseline reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$32,897結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg with roughly 39 percent of the vote. Retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler endorsed Lasher, who also received support from Governor Kathy Hochul and substantial outside spending from a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing the Upper East and West Sides and Midtown, has long favored Democrats, with Nadler previously winning by margins exceeding 80 percent. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee who advanced without primary opposition, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for late developments to alter the established partisan baseline reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,897結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETMicah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg with roughly 39 percent of the vote. Retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler endorsed Lasher, who also received support from Governor Kathy Hochul and substantial outside spending from a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing the Upper East and West Sides and Midtown, has long favored Democrats, with Nadler previously winning by margins exceeding 80 percent. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee who advanced without primary opposition, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for late developments to alter the established partisan baseline reflected in current market pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions