Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official BEA figures show real GDP expanding 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment, AI-driven capex, and steady consumer spending despite affordability pressures. Major institutions including the CBO, S&P Global, Vanguard, and the Philadelphia Fed project full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, consistent with above-trend expansion and no recession signals in leading indicators. Traders price this resilience into the low 4% probability for contraction, reflecting capital-backed consensus rather than certainty. Tail risks such as sharp policy reversals, geopolitical shocks, or sudden labor market deterioration could still trigger a downturn, though current trajectories make these scenarios remote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$32,234 交易量
$32,234 交易量
2027-01-29
是
4% 機率
$32,234 交易量
$32,234 交易量
2027-01-29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official BEA figures show real GDP expanding 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment, AI-driven capex, and steady consumer spending despite affordability pressures. Major institutions including the CBO, S&P Global, Vanguard, and the Philadelphia Fed project full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, consistent with above-trend expansion and no recession signals in leading indicators. Traders price this resilience into the low 4% probability for contraction, reflecting capital-backed consensus rather than certainty. Tail risks such as sharp policy reversals, geopolitical shocks, or sudden labor market deterioration could still trigger a downturn, though current trajectories make these scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$32,234結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official BEA figures show real GDP expanding 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment, AI-driven capex, and steady consumer spending despite affordability pressures. Major institutions including the CBO, S&P Global, Vanguard, and the Philadelphia Fed project full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, consistent with above-trend expansion and no recession signals in leading indicators. Traders price this resilience into the low 4% probability for contraction, reflecting capital-backed consensus rather than certainty. Tail risks such as sharp policy reversals, geopolitical shocks, or sudden labor market deterioration could still trigger a downturn, though current trajectories make these scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$32,234結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official BEA figures show real GDP expanding 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment, AI-driven capex, and steady consumer spending despite affordability pressures. Major institutions including the CBO, S&P Global, Vanguard, and the Philadelphia Fed project full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, consistent with above-trend expansion and no recession signals in leading indicators. Traders price this resilience into the low 4% probability for contraction, reflecting capital-backed consensus rather than certainty. Tail risks such as sharp policy reversals, geopolitical shocks, or sudden labor market deterioration could still trigger a downturn, though current trajectories make these scenarios remote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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