Recent strength in consumer spending, which accelerated to a 3.7% pace, alongside robust export growth of 9.6% and AI-related business investment, has positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the market leader for Q3 2026 GDP. These factors more than offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% annualized and support the current 45% implied probability, even as elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI and a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment keep lower ranges in play. Traders are pricing in the latest data releases showing upgraded Q3 momentum, with upcoming BEA revisions and FOMC communications likely to influence near-term adjustments to these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於≥3.0% 45%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 14%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$26,784 交易量
$26,784 交易量
2026-10-29
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
21%
2.5–3.0%
14%
≥3.0%
45%
≥3.0% 45%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 14%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$26,784 交易量
$26,784 交易量
2026-10-29
<0.5%
$906 交易量
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 交易量
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 交易量
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 交易量
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,890 交易量
21%
2.5–3.0%
$3,411 交易量
14%
≥3.0%
$18,640 交易量
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent strength in consumer spending, which accelerated to a 3.7% pace, alongside robust export growth of 9.6% and AI-related business investment, has positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the market leader for Q3 2026 GDP. These factors more than offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% annualized and support the current 45% implied probability, even as elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI and a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment keep lower ranges in play. Traders are pricing in the latest data releases showing upgraded Q3 momentum, with upcoming BEA revisions and FOMC communications likely to influence near-term adjustments to these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
交易量
$26,784結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent strength in consumer spending, which accelerated to a 3.7% pace, alongside robust export growth of 9.6% and AI-related business investment, has positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the market leader for Q3 2026 GDP. These factors more than offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% annualized and support the current 45% implied probability, even as elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI and a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment keep lower ranges in play. Traders are pricing in the latest data releases showing upgraded Q3 momentum, with upcoming BEA revisions and FOMC communications likely to influence near-term adjustments to these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$26,784結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRecent strength in consumer spending, which accelerated to a 3.7% pace, alongside robust export growth of 9.6% and AI-related business investment, has positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the market leader for Q3 2026 GDP. These factors more than offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% annualized and support the current 45% implied probability, even as elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI and a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment keep lower ranges in play. Traders are pricing in the latest data releases showing upgraded Q3 momentum, with upcoming BEA revisions and FOMC communications likely to influence near-term adjustments to these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions