Recent weak July activity data, including retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year and softer industrial output and fixed-asset investment, have weighed on Q3 2026 growth expectations following Q2's 4.3% year-over-year expansion. Goldman Sachs estimates early Q3 momentum at around 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas aligning near 4.1-4.2%, citing persistent domestic demand shortfalls and property sector pressures despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader sentiment in the 4.3-4.9% range, reflecting the balance between downside risks from consumption softness and anticipated fiscal support measures aimed at meeting the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds incorporate uncertainty around the scale and timing of policy easing ahead of the Q3 release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.3-4.6% 46%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.9%
3.7-4.0% 6.2%
$32,916 交易量
$32,916 交易量
2026-10-19
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
6%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
46%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 46%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.9%
3.7-4.0% 6.2%
$32,916 交易量
$32,916 交易量
2026-10-19
<3.4%
$1,221 交易量
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 交易量
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,250 交易量
6%
4.0-4.3%
$2,334 交易量
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,516 交易量
46%
4.6-4.9%
$8,763 交易量
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,349 交易量
2%
5.2-5.5%
$1,476 交易量
<1%
5.5%+
$1,314 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent weak July activity data, including retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year and softer industrial output and fixed-asset investment, have weighed on Q3 2026 growth expectations following Q2's 4.3% year-over-year expansion. Goldman Sachs estimates early Q3 momentum at around 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas aligning near 4.1-4.2%, citing persistent domestic demand shortfalls and property sector pressures despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader sentiment in the 4.3-4.9% range, reflecting the balance between downside risks from consumption softness and anticipated fiscal support measures aimed at meeting the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds incorporate uncertainty around the scale and timing of policy easing ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$32,916結束日期
2026-10-20市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent weak July activity data, including retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year and softer industrial output and fixed-asset investment, have weighed on Q3 2026 growth expectations following Q2's 4.3% year-over-year expansion. Goldman Sachs estimates early Q3 momentum at around 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas aligning near 4.1-4.2%, citing persistent domestic demand shortfalls and property sector pressures despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader sentiment in the 4.3-4.9% range, reflecting the balance between downside risks from consumption softness and anticipated fiscal support measures aimed at meeting the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds incorporate uncertainty around the scale and timing of policy easing ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$32,916結束日期
2026-10-20市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRecent weak July activity data, including retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year and softer industrial output and fixed-asset investment, have weighed on Q3 2026 growth expectations following Q2's 4.3% year-over-year expansion. Goldman Sachs estimates early Q3 momentum at around 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas aligning near 4.1-4.2%, citing persistent domestic demand shortfalls and property sector pressures despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader sentiment in the 4.3-4.9% range, reflecting the balance between downside risks from consumption softness and anticipated fiscal support measures aimed at meeting the 4.5-5% annual target. Market-implied odds incorporate uncertainty around the scale and timing of policy easing ahead of the Q3 release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions