Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% Republican implied probability. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+16, and nonpartisan forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Stutzman secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson plus an independent in the November general election. Thompson’s limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling underscore the structural Republican advantage. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a sharp national swing against the party in power, a significant personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though these remain low-probability events given the district’s baseline partisan lean.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$18,544 交易量
$18,544 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
95%
民主黨
6%
$18,544 交易量
$18,544 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$4,481 交易量
95%
民主黨
$14,063 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% Republican implied probability. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+16, and nonpartisan forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Stutzman secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson plus an independent in the November general election. Thompson’s limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling underscore the structural Republican advantage. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a sharp national swing against the party in power, a significant personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though these remain low-probability events given the district’s baseline partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$18,544結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% Republican implied probability. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+16, and nonpartisan forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Stutzman secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson plus an independent in the November general election. Thompson’s limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling underscore the structural Republican advantage. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a sharp national swing against the party in power, a significant personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though these remain low-probability events given the district’s baseline partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,544結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% Republican implied probability. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+16, and nonpartisan forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Stutzman secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson plus an independent in the November general election. Thompson’s limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling underscore the structural Republican advantage. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a sharp national swing against the party in power, a significant personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though these remain low-probability events given the district’s baseline partisan lean.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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