Recent forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions on August 11, with clear skies and light winds favoring a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 36–38°C, reflecting typical late-summer climatology for the central Meseta without incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture that could moderate temperatures. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 37°C (52%) and 38°C (34.5%), while lower and higher outliers remain possible only if models shift sharply in the final 48-hour runs or if localized urban heat-island effects alter the official Retiro or Barajas readings used for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月11日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 52%
38°C 34%
36°C 16%
40°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
16%
37°C
52%
38°C
34%
39°C
2%
40°C
6%
41°C
4%
42°C or higher
1%
37°C 52%
38°C 34%
36°C 16%
40°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
32°C or below
$34 交易量
<1%
33°C
$34 交易量
<1%
34°C
$39 交易量
2%
35°C
$94 交易量
2%
36°C
$52 交易量
16%
37°C
$118 交易量
52%
38°C
$135 交易量
34%
39°C
$39 交易量
2%
40°C
$32 交易量
6%
41°C
$5 交易量
4%
42°C or higher
$59 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions on August 11, with clear skies and light winds favoring a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 36–38°C, reflecting typical late-summer climatology for the central Meseta without incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture that could moderate temperatures. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 37°C (52%) and 38°C (34.5%), while lower and higher outliers remain possible only if models shift sharply in the final 48-hour runs or if localized urban heat-island effects alter the official Retiro or Barajas readings used for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$621結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions on August 11, with clear skies and light winds favoring a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 36–38°C, reflecting typical late-summer climatology for the central Meseta without incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture that could moderate temperatures. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 37°C (52%) and 38°C (34.5%), while lower and higher outliers remain possible only if models shift sharply in the final 48-hour runs or if localized urban heat-island effects alter the official Retiro or Barajas readings used for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$621結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions on August 11, with clear skies and light winds favoring a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 36–38°C, reflecting typical late-summer climatology for the central Meseta without incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture that could moderate temperatures. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 37°C (52%) and 38°C (34.5%), while lower and higher outliers remain possible only if models shift sharply in the final 48-hour runs or if localized urban heat-island effects alter the official Retiro or Barajas readings used for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions