Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 has driven current trader sentiment, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and configuration. This continues gains from the earlier K2 series, which leveraged large context windows, agent swarms, and sequential tool calling to reach 50%+ on agentic variants of the benchmark. K3 ranks near the top of open-weight entries and close to some proprietary GPT-5.5 configurations, though Anthropic’s Claude Fable/Opus 5 models currently lead overall at 55–65%. Further gains through year-end depend on additional fine-tuning, expanded tool integration, and any new Kimi releases before December 31 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$54,462 交易量
2026-12-31
45%以上
74%
50%+
37%
55％以上
22%
60% 以上
11%
65%+
8%
$54,462 交易量
45%以上
$13,307 交易量
74%
50%+
$18,899 交易量
37%
55％以上
$10,917 交易量
22%
60% 以上
$9,708 交易量
11%
65%+
$1,632 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 has driven current trader sentiment, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and configuration. This continues gains from the earlier K2 series, which leveraged large context windows, agent swarms, and sequential tool calling to reach 50%+ on agentic variants of the benchmark. K3 ranks near the top of open-weight entries and close to some proprietary GPT-5.5 configurations, though Anthropic’s Claude Fable/Opus 5 models currently lead overall at 55–65%. Further gains through year-end depend on additional fine-tuning, expanded tool integration, and any new Kimi releases before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$54,462結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 has driven current trader sentiment, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and configuration. This continues gains from the earlier K2 series, which leveraged large context windows, agent swarms, and sequential tool calling to reach 50%+ on agentic variants of the benchmark. K3 ranks near the top of open-weight entries and close to some proprietary GPT-5.5 configurations, though Anthropic’s Claude Fable/Opus 5 models currently lead overall at 55–65%. Further gains through year-end depend on additional fine-tuning, expanded tool integration, and any new Kimi releases before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$54,462結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETMoonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 has driven current trader sentiment, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and configuration. This continues gains from the earlier K2 series, which leveraged large context windows, agent swarms, and sequential tool calling to reach 50%+ on agentic variants of the benchmark. K3 ranks near the top of open-weight entries and close to some proprietary GPT-5.5 configurations, though Anthropic’s Claude Fable/Opus 5 models currently lead overall at 55–65%. Further gains through year-end depend on additional fine-tuning, expanded tool integration, and any new Kimi releases before December 31 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions