**Incumbent Rick Allen secured the Republican nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Ceretta Smith won the Democratic nomination after a June 16 runoff.** Georgia’s 12th District, covering east-central areas including Augusta and Statesboro, remains a solidly Republican seat with limited competitiveness. Cook Political Report rates it Solid R, and related prediction markets assign the GOP an 82% chance of holding the seat in the November 3 general election. With only two major-party candidates on the ballot and no evidence of a surge in Democratic support or unusual turnout dynamics, traders see a strong likelihood that Allen exceeds 50% on election night. This avoids the state’s automatic runoff trigger and supports the 94.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. No late-breaking developments or primary surprises have altered this assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
95% 機率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
95% 機率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.**Incumbent Rick Allen secured the Republican nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Ceretta Smith won the Democratic nomination after a June 16 runoff.** Georgia’s 12th District, covering east-central areas including Augusta and Statesboro, remains a solidly Republican seat with limited competitiveness. Cook Political Report rates it Solid R, and related prediction markets assign the GOP an 82% chance of holding the seat in the November 3 general election.
With only two major-party candidates on the ballot and no evidence of a surge in Democratic support or unusual turnout dynamics, traders see a strong likelihood that Allen exceeds 50% on election night. This avoids the state’s automatic runoff trigger and supports the 94.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. No late-breaking developments or primary surprises have altered this assessment.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
交易量
$257結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.**Incumbent Rick Allen secured the Republican nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Ceretta Smith won the Democratic nomination after a June 16 runoff.** Georgia’s 12th District, covering east-central areas including Augusta and Statesboro, remains a solidly Republican seat with limited competitiveness. Cook Political Report rates it Solid R, and related prediction markets assign the GOP an 82% chance of holding the seat in the November 3 general election.
With only two major-party candidates on the ballot and no evidence of a surge in Democratic support or unusual turnout dynamics, traders see a strong likelihood that Allen exceeds 50% on election night. This avoids the state’s automatic runoff trigger and supports the 94.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. No late-breaking developments or primary surprises have altered this assessment.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
交易量
$257結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Rick Allen secured the Republican nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Ceretta Smith won the Democratic nomination after a June 16 runoff.** Georgia’s 12th District, covering east-central areas including Augusta and Statesboro, remains a solidly Republican seat with limited competitiveness. Cook Political Report rates it Solid R, and related prediction markets assign the GOP an 82% chance of holding the seat in the November 3 general election. With only two major-party candidates on the ballot and no evidence of a surge in Democratic support or unusual turnout dynamics, traders see a strong likelihood that Allen exceeds 50% on election night. This avoids the state’s automatic runoff trigger and supports the 94.5% implied probability of an outright first-round winner. No late-breaking developments or primary surprises have altered this assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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