**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-64 52%
65-89 23%
少於40 21%
90-114 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
少於40
21%
40-64
52%
65-89
23%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 52%
65-89 23%
少於40 21%
90-114 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
少於40
$70 交易量
21%
40-64
$84 交易量
52%
65-89
$52 交易量
23%
90-114
$70 交易量
5%
115-139
$300 交易量
1%
140-164
$432 交易量
1%
165-189
$432 交易量
1%
190-214
$12 交易量
1%
215-239
$20 交易量
1%
240+
$120 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$1,591結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$1,591結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ET**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions