Multiple Republican-held and open Democratic Senate seats rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups ahead of the November 3, 2026, elections, with recent forecaster updates and polls showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio within a handful of points. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive nominees in Texas and Alaska, have kept these races tight, while modest shifts in ratings for Texas and Michigan reflect evolving polling and candidate dynamics. Trader consensus prices these states highest for the narrowest final margin because small national or state-specific movements could easily produce sub-2-point results across several battlegrounds, with limited separation expected until late-cycle developments such as additional polling or turnout signals emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Texas 15%
Iowa 11.9%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.6%
$36,524 交易量
$36,524 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
15%
Iowa
12%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Alaska
10%
Maine
9%
Nebraska
7%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
3%
New Hampshire
2%
Florida (Special)
2%
North Carolina
8%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
1%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 11.9%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.6%
$36,524 交易量
$36,524 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$1,816 交易量
15%
Iowa
$2,959 交易量
12%
Michigan
$2,833 交易量
11%
Ohio (Special)
$8,805 交易量
10%
Alaska
$7,267 交易量
10%
Maine
$1,305 交易量
9%
Nebraska
$293 交易量
7%
Colorado
$716 交易量
4%
Virginia
$5,073 交易量
3%
New Hampshire
$659 交易量
2%
Florida (Special)
$253 交易量
2%
North Carolina
$851 交易量
8%
Georgia
$824 交易量
2%
New Mexico
$160 交易量
1%
Montana
$1,221 交易量
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 交易量
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Republican-held and open Democratic Senate seats rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups ahead of the November 3, 2026, elections, with recent forecaster updates and polls showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio within a handful of points. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive nominees in Texas and Alaska, have kept these races tight, while modest shifts in ratings for Texas and Michigan reflect evolving polling and candidate dynamics. Trader consensus prices these states highest for the narrowest final margin because small national or state-specific movements could easily produce sub-2-point results across several battlegrounds, with limited separation expected until late-cycle developments such as additional polling or turnout signals emerge.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$36,524結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Republican-held and open Democratic Senate seats rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups ahead of the November 3, 2026, elections, with recent forecaster updates and polls showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio within a handful of points. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive nominees in Texas and Alaska, have kept these races tight, while modest shifts in ratings for Texas and Michigan reflect evolving polling and candidate dynamics. Trader consensus prices these states highest for the narrowest final margin because small national or state-specific movements could easily produce sub-2-point results across several battlegrounds, with limited separation expected until late-cycle developments such as additional polling or turnout signals emerge.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$36,524結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETMultiple Republican-held and open Democratic Senate seats rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups ahead of the November 3, 2026, elections, with recent forecaster updates and polls showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio within a handful of points. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive nominees in Texas and Alaska, have kept these races tight, while modest shifts in ratings for Texas and Michigan reflect evolving polling and candidate dynamics. Trader consensus prices these states highest for the narrowest final margin because small national or state-specific movements could easily produce sub-2-point results across several battlegrounds, with limited separation expected until late-cycle developments such as additional polling or turnout signals emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions