The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$43,796 交易量
$43,796 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
97%
共和黨
2%
$43,796 交易量
$43,796 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$26,622 交易量
97%
共和黨
$17,173 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$43,796結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,796結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, centered in San Francisco with strong voter registration advantages for Democrats, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates, incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce, after no Republican cleared the threshold in a district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. This intra-party contest and absence of a viable Republican nominee reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such changes before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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