Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd District against Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee. The district’s Republican tilt—evident in Donald Trump’s 2024 margin and post-redistricting boundaries—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5 percent. Most independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s established fundraising, name recognition, and primary victory. A late-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44 percent, driven by independent support and 8 percent undecided, prompting Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting and endorsements. Despite this signal of competitiveness, Polymarket pricing continues to emphasize structural advantages and historical midterm patterns over a single survey.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-02
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
12%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
Republican Party
$3,320 交易量
86%
Democratic Party
$6,548 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd District against Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee. The district’s Republican tilt—evident in Donald Trump’s 2024 margin and post-redistricting boundaries—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5 percent. Most independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s established fundraising, name recognition, and primary victory. A late-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44 percent, driven by independent support and 8 percent undecided, prompting Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting and endorsements. Despite this signal of competitiveness, Polymarket pricing continues to emphasize structural advantages and historical midterm patterns over a single survey.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$9,868結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd District against Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee. The district’s Republican tilt—evident in Donald Trump’s 2024 margin and post-redistricting boundaries—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5 percent. Most independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s established fundraising, name recognition, and primary victory. A late-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44 percent, driven by independent support and 8 percent undecided, prompting Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting and endorsements. Despite this signal of competitiveness, Polymarket pricing continues to emphasize structural advantages and historical midterm patterns over a single survey.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,868結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd District against Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee. The district’s Republican tilt—evident in Donald Trump’s 2024 margin and post-redistricting boundaries—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 85.5 percent. Most independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s established fundraising, name recognition, and primary victory. A late-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44 percent, driven by independent support and 8 percent undecided, prompting Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting and endorsements. Despite this signal of competitiveness, Polymarket pricing continues to emphasize structural advantages and historical midterm patterns over a single survey.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions