High-stakes competition in the 2026 House midterms, framed as a referendum on the Trump administration amid low presidential approval and a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, sustains elevated voter engagement expectations. Polarization, competitive districts, and both parties' get-out-the-vote operations targeting low-propensity and demographic groups keep projected totals uncertain, with historical midterm baselines of 100-115 million votes clashing against signals of stronger mobilization from primaries, special elections, and youth registration trends. Fundraising surges, national issues such as the economy and trade, and the number of battleground races could boost participation above typical off-year levels, while weaker base turnout or localized dynamics might constrain totals.