National Hurricane Center forecasts keep Hurricane Lowell’s center well west of the Hawaiian Islands, passing roughly 150–190 miles offshore of Kauai and Niihau late Monday as a Category 2–3 system after a sharp northward turn steered by a weakening subtropical ridge and an approaching mid-level low. Current reconnaissance data place the Category 5 storm about 600 miles south-southwest of Kauai, with model consensus and ensemble means showing limited eastward deviation that would be required for landfall. Increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to weaken Lowell before closest approach, while historical analogs like Iniki underscore that even modest track shifts could alter impacts. Traders assign 94.5% probability to no landfall, reflecting the strong consensus in official guidance and ensemble spread that favors an offshore track.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii?
Will Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii?
6% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
6% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".National Hurricane Center forecasts keep Hurricane Lowell’s center well west of the Hawaiian Islands, passing roughly 150–190 miles offshore of Kauai and Niihau late Monday as a Category 2–3 system after a sharp northward turn steered by a weakening subtropical ridge and an approaching mid-level low. Current reconnaissance data place the Category 5 storm about 600 miles south-southwest of Kauai, with model consensus and ensemble means showing limited eastward deviation that would be required for landfall. Increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to weaken Lowell before closest approach, while historical analogs like Iniki underscore that even modest track shifts could alter impacts. Traders assign 94.5% probability to no landfall, reflecting the strong consensus in official guidance and ensemble spread that favors an offshore track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Khối lượng
$459Ngày kết thúc
Sep 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".National Hurricane Center forecasts keep Hurricane Lowell’s center well west of the Hawaiian Islands, passing roughly 150–190 miles offshore of Kauai and Niihau late Monday as a Category 2–3 system after a sharp northward turn steered by a weakening subtropical ridge and an approaching mid-level low. Current reconnaissance data place the Category 5 storm about 600 miles south-southwest of Kauai, with model consensus and ensemble means showing limited eastward deviation that would be required for landfall. Increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to weaken Lowell before closest approach, while historical analogs like Iniki underscore that even modest track shifts could alter impacts. Traders assign 94.5% probability to no landfall, reflecting the strong consensus in official guidance and ensemble spread that favors an offshore track.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Khối lượng
$459Ngày kết thúc
Sep 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...National Hurricane Center forecasts keep Hurricane Lowell’s center well west of the Hawaiian Islands, passing roughly 150–190 miles offshore of Kauai and Niihau late Monday as a Category 2–3 system after a sharp northward turn steered by a weakening subtropical ridge and an approaching mid-level low. Current reconnaissance data place the Category 5 storm about 600 miles south-southwest of Kauai, with model consensus and ensemble means showing limited eastward deviation that would be required for landfall. Increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to weaken Lowell before closest approach, while historical analogs like Iniki underscore that even modest track shifts could alter impacts. Traders assign 94.5% probability to no landfall, reflecting the strong consensus in official guidance and ensemble spread that favors an offshore track.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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